At the time of writing, US president Donald Trump, who left the G7 summit early and hastily – and who won the presidency largely with pledges to be a dealmaker and a peacemaker with the stated aim to end current wars quickly and to not start any new ones affecting US armed forces – is in session with his National Security Council. On the Council agenda, apparently: the choice between a last-ditch effort to persuade Iran´s crumbling leadership to “return to the negotiating table” (meaning, virtually, more or less total surrender) and, the stark alternative, for the US military to go full force for “the military solution”, i.e., to actively join Israeli IDF in its ongoing campaign to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all, thereby perhaps achieving as a bonus regime change in Iran, or rather regime collapse, presumably.
Judging from hints by Trump and others in his administration, this is indeed the choice facing the Council as the President´s chief advisory group. And it is a controversial choice in Trump-dominated USA, for the MAGA-movement remains more than skeptical as regards any new American war adventure, and are hard to convince by the other camp forming the base of the administration, GOP Iran hawks that would rather enthusiastically support any moves conducted or dictated by Israel´s warlord-in-chief, Benjamin Netanyahu. What will be the outcome of the Council session as ongoing at the time/moment of writing these lines, the choice between these alternatives – or perhaps, as a compromise, a third alternative in which the US faces the Iranian leadership with an ultimatum (“accept total elimination of the uranium enrichment program, and more, or face the full force of US B-2/MOP bunker-buster power against your key installations at Natanz, Fordow and elsewhere”) – will be a known reality as this text is published.
Or perhaps not, given the controversiality in domestic US power politics and the tons of uncertainties to be weighed in as regards possible or likely next steps, and the reluctance on the part of most US players to risk a long, drawn-out war, a new “for ever” war. And of course the very clear and present risk that an offensive US participation in the Israeli aggression would almost guarantee that even a drastically weakened, desperate Iran would use its remaining military means in an onslaught against US military assets in the region, affecting the Arab host countries.
We shall see. Sooner or later. Probably sooner.
It is in any case to be born in mind that this particular drama takes place simultaneously with other unresolved and deeply troubling dramas which add to rendering chaotic existing mechanisms for strategic stability, regionally and globally, notably Russia´s increasingly aggressive war in and against Ukraine, and Israel´s continued war in Gaza, with scores of deaths daily and no end in sight.
So regardless of next few hours´ and days´ developments in the Israel-Iran (US?) air war, we are faced with the necessity to assess that peace and stability in the world has become seriously threated by recent years´ developments. So some worried reflections are called for, rather urgently. Here is a selection, not necessarily in order of importance.
The Trump factor
It is miracle of sorts that Donald Trump was able – in spite of all the odds – to have a come back to the Oval Office, and once there it is almost a miracle that he has been able to establish himself as a, or the, world hegemon to whose whims and caprices all world leaders, allies or adversaries alike, have found themselves obliged to seek to adapt. While in view of all the tensions and strains permeating the global scene in 2025 rational and strong US leadership would be called for, objectively, like during critical periods of the post-World War II past, leadership in and of the US is now “usurped” by a person with uncontested personal power (for now) and one who has proved willing and able to use the first months of his second mandate period in a well-prepared effort to destroy or disrupt much of the US as we have known it, including its constitutionality, its rule of law and its system of checks and balances. And on the world scene, these same first months have manifested failed attempts to appease Putin´s Russia with oddly unrealistic “peace initiatives”, put in doubt US adherence to the Western efforts in support of Ukraine and US commitments to transatlantic links and to NATO, and then there are the failed attempts to steer friend Netanyahu into reasonable off-ramps in the Middle East crises – if indeed there were such attempts. And now we have the acute Iran-Israel crisis.
The world seems less than safe with total US power, and the unique power over the control of US´ nuclear arsenals, in the hands of someone whom more than half of the US electorate regards as a convicted felon, demonstrably ready and willing to use the US military to quell opposition demonstrations, and not only in California, apparently ready also to provoke or tolerate street violence in a bid to strengthen executive, presidential power.
And then there is
The Bibi Netanyahu factor
It is truly remarkable how Netanyahu, Israel´s deeply controversial master of political survival, has proved able to dictate, step by step, US policies, first under team Biden and the miserable handling of the Gaza disaster and now, in spite of signals and initial tendencies to the contrary, under team Trump. After all, it is remarkable that while Trump only a few days earlier both declared readiness to pursue negotiations with Iran (and had seemed ready to accept a deal not very different from the JCPOA agreement he despised and abandoned in 2018) and openly criticized Netanyahu for the Friday surprise attack in spite of the planned 6th round in Oman on the Sunday, clarifying US non-participation, he would now, in a dramatic volte-face, declare full support of Netanyahu´s unilateral attack, and even consider joining militarily, offensively. So the Netanyahu gamble, a surprise full-scale attack days ahead of the planned talks, clearly demonstrating readiness to disrupt any such talks, regardless of signals from Washington (if indeed there were such signals), this gamble paid off.
Netanyahu can now claim, domestically and internationally, that the US shares his view regarding the lethally dangerous imminence of the Iranian nuclear threat. Regardless of the Council choice as above, Netanyahu can now rest relatively assured (but the Trump unpredictability pertains to Bibi as well as others) that the threat of dangerous “compromise” is over, that the enemy Iran is now facing surrender or destruction/regime collapse, and hence that his march towards “total victory” against all Israel´s enemies may continue, unabated.
What this means for Gaza and Gazans is another, probably tragic, story.
The Putin factor
It is truly remarkable how the acute Israel-Iran-US crisis – to some extent similarly to what happened at the time recently with the India-Pakistan crisis – has led to a global attention de-emphasis of the Russia-Ukraine war, a war that rages on with huge losses and with absolutely no end in sight, and no talks in a long time about ceasefire arrangements, made in US. So while dangerous escalation is looming large in the Middle East crises, notably Israel-Iran, Russian attacks against the Ukrainian capital Kiev approaches all time high levels. While the US is considering entering into full-scale war in the Middle East. While still considering China and a possible Taiwan crisis as the main threat.
Combining these three factors, and not forgetting about all the other relevant factors, and we have, sadly, to conclude that the world has maneuvered itself into a very dangerous situation, dangerous and uncertain and unpredictable – in way which leads into unchartered territory.
What all this will imply for the upcoming NATO summit in the Haag will be interesting to observe. True, this gathering will deal mainly with the Putin factor, or the conflict between the Global West, the US more or less included, and the Global East, with more or less clear links between Russia and China (and North Korea and, yes, Iran). But unavoidably, the Trump and Bibi factors, will be there in any case as the comrade elephants in the room.
The author is ambassador, holds a Ph d and is a fellow of RSAWS.