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Omvärldsläget upp­date­ras kontinuer­ligt

I ambitionen att ligga på framkant avseende en bred uppföljning av säkerhetssituationen publiceras månatliga uppdateringar av omvärldsläget författade av ledamoten Michael Sahlin, Fil dr, tidigare statssekreterare och ambassadör. Han har en lång erfarenhet av internationell verksamhet vilket inkluderar utrikes- och säkerhetspolitisk analys. Michael Sahlin inledde den 18 oktober 2020 med en analys med anledning av det då stundande presidentvalet i USA.

Sweden/Finland/Turqiye/NATO – On The Noble Art of Strategic Ambiguity

It was – apparently – a close call. But on the very day of the opening of the important NATO summit in Madrid there was to the relief of many a last-minute agreement between one member country, Turkey, and two Nordic membership applicants, Sweden and Finland, under the active oversight of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, an agreed “memorandum” sufficient for [...]

By |19 jul 2022|

Reflexioner över omvärldsutveckling – SES-projektets möte med verkligheten

Anförande av Michael Sahlin vid KKrVA Akademisammankomst 18 maj 2022 Styresman, ärade, ärrade ledamöter, Den 9 maj firade man, inte minst i Moskva, ”segerdagen”, segern över nazist-Tyskland efter nästan 6 år av unikt förödande krig. Omvärlden undrade inför det – vad skulle Vladimir Putin ha att säga denna symbolladdade dag, efter två och en halv månads också och i en [...]

By |22 jun 2022|

Taking Turkey’s legitimate security concerns seriously

We hear a lot these days about the need to take Turkey’s (or Turkiye's as the official name now reads, with proper dots over the u) legitimate security concerns seriously – to the extent that they are indeed legitimate. It was repeated by Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato chief for one more year, as he was seen rowing the boat at [...]

By |17 jun 2022|

Prospects for troubled Libya – fission or fusion? or partition? [1]

European and transatlantic security would suffer a big loss if in spite of all international efforts Libya were to descend into armed chaos and instability 11 troubled years after the fall of Ghadafi in 2011 and then prevailing Arab spring conditions. National elections were and are seen to be a necessary condition for the establishment of national unification and legitimate [...]

By |5 maj 2022|

Iran JCPOA deal: To be, or not to be? And for how long? [1]

And then there is Iran and the JCPOA nuclear issue, the key to Middle East stability. “Time is running out” for a solution and an agreement, said State Secretary Blinken already in January this year before the eighth round of proxy talks in Vienna. And now we are in mid-April and time should really be running out. On the other [...]

By |20 apr 2022|

Saved by Putin’s Ukraine aggression? Erdogan’s balancing act on tightening rope [1]

The Ukraine crisis threatens an already hard-pressed Erdogan regime with a host of added economic and political burdens, with presidential and parliamentary elections looming. At the same time it is becoming increasingly clear that, nonetheless, the Russia-Ukraine war and Western reactions to it, has also provided Turkey’s embattled and internationally isolated ruler with a welcome opportunity to turn his complicated [...]

By |5 apr 2022|

Ukraine Crisis, the Brussels Summits, Regime Change and Red Lines [1]

President Biden wrapped up his extraordinary European tour, including NATO, EU and G7 summits plus a tour of refugee inundated Poland, with a powerful Warsaw speech – aimed at being on historical par with those of Kennedy and Reagan in Berlin – where he, controversially, added a particular punch to the prepared manuscript: “For God´s sake, this man cannot remain [...]

By |1 apr 2022|

Avskräckningens dilemma: reflexioner om trovärdiga röda linjer m a a Ukraina-krigets risker

I det läge som skapats av Rysslands aggression fr o m den 24 januari talas i den strida floden av svenska och internationella inlagor mycket om både det andra och det tredje världskriget, chockerande mycket, kunde man tycka. Det handlar ju då dels om allt det som i dagarna minner om det andra världskriget med dettas skrämmande markörer av raserade städer, gatustrider [...]

By |24 mar 2022|

Wider security consequences of explosive Ukraine crisis

Wider security consequences of explosive Ukraine crisis[1] Past the brink: from deterrence to punishment. End of diplomacy, for now Will the world (as we know it) end with a bang or a whimper? Turning T S Eliot’s statement in his famous and oft-quoted poem into a question, the answer, a brutal answer, clear and deeply regrettably proved to be: a [...]

By |27 feb 2022|
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