Is the triumph march to ever-increasing personal power of Donald Trump starting to be affected, even slowed down, by clear and present headwinds, after soon one year in the White House, in his second presidential term? That is the question. Could it be, furthermore, that these headwinds, if proven sustainable, could indicate that contrary to many gloomy democratic prognoses Trump is headed for a serious set back in next years’ mid-term elections, such that he and his obedient GOP (and his MAGA supporters) could again loose the House majority (and the Senate?), leaving Trump with the prospects of his final two years in office as a lame duck, unable to pursue his policy aims and legacy preservation at the mercy of an obstinate House majority? Opening up for an extremely uncertain election round in 2028? Opening up, furthermore, for an onslaught on his legally and morally questionable policies during Trump II, should the Democrats regain the White House and Congress majorities?
A turning point? That remains to be seen, obviously, but it cannot be ruled out that current trends will be looked upon as such, in retrospect. Unless, of course, these trends will suffer defeat to strong-arm Trumpian countertrends.
But the list of episodes of headwinds is not insignificant.
First there is sign of rising disobedience within the GOP Congress majority mainly following the Epstein saga, i.e., whether to open up for public scrutiny the entire documentation of the Epstein sex trafficking scandal – as demanded by Trump in the campaign but as since sought to be prevented, even to the point of calling any GOP vote for the release a “hostile” act, by this same Trump, with Trump then – seeing a massive GOP (and of course D) vote probability growing in favor of a release – again shifting position in a total volte face, advising a GOP yes vote and in the end seeing a rare unanimous vote for the release in both House and Senate. It remaining a mystery what motivated these strange moves by the president, and big questions as regards whether, when and with what consequences these files will in fact be released, this saga in any case clearly represents a significant case of congressional (GOP) disobedience to Trump’s ambitions at enhancing executive power at the expense of the Constitution’s provisions concerning checks and balances.
And in this chain of events the name Marjorie Taylor Greene – formerly a leading voice in the MAGA movement and one of Trump’s near-fanatic supporters – stood out as a key player, only now in clear opposition to the boss, initially of the Epstein issue but later broadened to more general opposition, thereby indicating a potentially significant crack in the MAGA movement, perhaps to be followed by likeminded others. She now regrets her own contributions to the prevailing toxic political climate in the Trump-led US and has decided to leave Congress altogether.
And then we have the various elections held during the autumn, in New York, New Jersey, Virginia and California, all with resounding democratic victories, in the case of New York seeing the “socialist” (or “communist” as Trump calls him) Zohran Mamdani) clearly winning, in spite of strong-mouthed warning by Trump, then seeing Trump turn necessity into virtue and inviting his former foe to the White House for a friendly, even cozy, meeting, with joint emphasis on matters of “affordability” for New Yorkers. Another volte face.
And then there is the ongoing struggle between Trump’s executive and both the legal structure of the US, from the Supreme Court and down the ladder of judicial levels, and the country’s states and cities, where the substance concerns Trump’s battle on criminality in the big cities and his urge to send units of the National Guard to those cities, and their resistance to this, and his use of ICE (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement) armed force in the implementation of his draconian immigration policies, all these being controversial steps costing presidential popularity, as shown in increasingly negative popularity polls.
As regards the Supreme Court, still suffering the legal consequences of its earlier ruling to grant wide presidential immunity to current and future incumbents, and all the effects this has had on court battles at lower levels of the judicial hierarchy, the crucial case concerning the constitutionality of Trump’s tariff policies without congressional backing is still pending and represents a huge dilemma for the conservative majority: allow it, and a big rule-of-law crisis will be widely seen to have arisen, disallow it and the consequences will be – as Trump has said – a “disaster”, considering the effects of having to alter the tariff policies, including re-payment of incomes earned.
We might add to the list of indicators of headwinds blowing the area of foreign policy, and indicators of growing unease within Congress and its GOP majority at a number of policy steps of questionable diplomatic solvency, scores of GOP congressmen and senators indicating lack of understanding and appreciation of team Trump’s balancing act between “peace” policies and “America first”- policies, widening criticisms varying between perceived amateurism (key example Ukraine), simplistic overreach (key example Gaza), adventurism (Venezuela) and the Marjorie Taylor Greene line: too much foreign affairs at the expense of the America first campaign pledge.
Now, if we were to extrapolate these’ (and other) trends – indicating headwinds and setbacks and hence a probability of a spiral of furthers setbacks and popularity losses – up to next year’s mid-terms it would seem almost unavoidable that democrats would regain House majority and hence a major new shift in US politics. How could an ever-so demoralized Democratic party, under some new leadership (Lawson, Witmer, Shapiro, Harris…?) not be successful in these elections, in view of current and expected reactions, among Latinos, Afro-Americans and other groups, to expected destructive further Trump policies during the year?
But asking this perhaps underestimates the Trump factor and the Trump magic, and his various steps at retribution and power consolidation and his determination never to be a lame duck (regardless), and tends to forget what a mission impossible it once seemed to be for Trump ever to be back in the White House, after the January 6 2021 events and related happenings.
Perhaps we shall see rather soon, before the end of the year, where the “real” winds, the net winds, are blowing. At least we may have a clearer view by then just how dramatic politics in Trump’s US is likely to be this crucial year, and the two to follow.