In the first episode of my new audio series, I read an adapted version of my unpublished essay ”Worst Case 2026–2030: When Three Clocks Strike at Once”.
The thesis is simple but uncomfortable: the worst case for Europe between now and 2030 is not any single crisis, but three separate clocks that risk striking at the same time. The American clock — where V-Dem, Freedom House, and political scientists such as Levitsky and Ziblatt document a democratic backsliding that faces its real test in the November midterm elections. The French clock — where the legal process around Marine Le Pen, and the National Rally’s outspoken NATO scepticism, could loosen Europe’s most important military anchor ahead of the presidential election in April 2027. And the Russian clock — where independent intelligence assessments point to a possible window for aggression in 2027–2030, before the EU’s rearmament catches up.
The point is the simultaneity: each crisis makes the other two harder to meet. But the episode also presents the counter-forces — and the way out indicated by the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences’ SV-A-R scenarios.
New episodes will follow, each with a summary in this format. A question for the comments: which of the three clocks are we underestimating most?