PREFACE

FÖRORD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

SAMMANFATTNING OCH SLUTSATSER

THE REPORT

1        Purpose and context

1.1     Security in Tomorrow’s Europe – The SES project

1.2     Purpose

1.3     The structure of the report

1.4     Contextual assumptions, delimitations and definitions

1.4.1       The European context

1.4.2       The MENA+ context

1.4.3       The global big power context

1.4.4       The containment assumption revisited

1.5     Global and regional trends and megatrends

2        Southern Challenges

2.1     The crucial interrelationships between flow security and conflicts and between threats and challenges

2.2     Flow security

2.2.1       Managing key flows – material, human and virtual

2.2.2       Protecting trade and assistance

2.2.3       The migration challenge

2.2.4       Cyber/information/finance

2.2.5       Organized crime and terrorism

2.2.6       WMD

2.3     Conflicts and wars threatening European security

2.3.1       Introduction

2.3.2       The Turkish variable

2.3.3       Iran – and Iraq

2.3.4       Syria

2.3.5       Libya

2.3.6       Eastern Mediterranean, an increasingly contested maritime area

3        EU(ropean) responses

3.1     A geopolitical approach in the face of a perceived US disengagement, the issue of strategic autonomy and increased problems of flow security

3.2     EU(rope) as actor(s) in solidarity

3.3     Towards a Comprehensive approach 2.0

3.4     EU(ropean) defence in the Southern dimension

3.5     EU(rope) as a framework- forum- partner – counterpart -actor

3.6     EU as an actor in the Southern dimension

3.6.1       Requirements and mandates

3.6.2       Instruments

3.6.3       A note on strategies

References