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In recent years, particularly as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year in 2025, several significant studies have emerged examining the complex challenge of securing a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine. These analyses vary in their approaches but share a common concern: Russia’s documented history of violating previous agreements raises serious questions about how to design a ceasefire that can withstand potential large-scale violations.
The most comprehensive recent analysis comes from the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), which published a detailed ”Swiss army knife of options” for achieving a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine in February 2025. This 31-page document represents one of the most thorough proposals to date, illustrating how rapidly ceasefire planning has shifted from theoretical discussions to practical considerations[1][7]. It is authored by an eminent OSCE expert, Dr Walter Kemp with oversight by the former OSCE Secretary- General Ambassador Thomas Greminger.
But it should be immediately added that this study provides a framework for the analysis of the requirements of a viable cease-fire without proposing solutions to several key problems relating to security guarantees and political agreements.
Indeed, a search of the various studies quoted in the compilation gives the answer that monitoring missions, regardless of size, cannot prevent a determined Russian offensive without broader security guarantees and international consequences for violations.
