Interim report from the SES project
Security of Europe – The Southern dimension
The security landscape in and around Europe is not at all reassuring. In 2020 developments have been dramatic. In this report this refers to fire resulting from conflicts, from organized crime and terrorism, fire in refugee camps and notably fire resulting from climate change. And then there are all the manifestations of burning crises which can be observed in other ways, including civil unrest, violence, oppression, torture and refugee flows not to speak of the burning lungs of Covid-19 patients.
This report looks beyond an evaluation of the current security environment in the European Southern neighbourhood and discusses the links between challenges and responses:
- The threat of war spilling over from the South to Europe – or otherwise impacting Europe – requires capacity building – but such capacity building risks coming too late
- Other short- to longer term threats and challenges, notably related to flow security also require capacity building as well as continuity and comprehensiveness
- The transatlantic link remains fundamental at least as long as sufficient European capacity is not built. Still the containment proposition – that great powers will in some way protect Europe from threats from the South – needs to be revisited
- Demands on EU(rope) – institutions as well as individual European states – will be increasing. But capacity building in light of Covid-19 inevitably means more austere budgets
- Strategic autonomy is a wider issue than the military dimension – already a contentious debate – and includes, notably in light of the Covid-19 experiences, supply security
- There is a need for a comprehensive approach 2.0 – a realistic synthesis that includes the military dimension
- The overall securitization of the Southern dimension and related policies need to be carefully calibrated not to bring counterproductive effects – necessarily a painful balancing act.
Skriften utgör en andra rapport från delprojektgruppen (Dp Säk) inom ramen för Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens projekt Säkerhet i morgondagens Europa (SES). Ett antal experter har bidragit med kunskaper inom sina specialområden.