The Major West European Powers and the Development of the EU

Summary of Gunilla Herolf's article in RSAWSPJ no 4 2001.

During the last few years, the European Union has undergone a striking development, as seen by all those who over the years have watched the struggles of the organization to agree on reforms. All the more remarkable is the fact that this has taken place within the area considered to be more sensitive than any other - that of security policy. At the same time, other unexpected developments have taken place among the three major West European powers in that the well-established Franco-German cooperation has weakened, whereas the Franco-British one has started to blossom.

Which are the reasons for these two phenomena? And which - if any - are the relations between them?

The development of the security dimension of the EU does not support the integration theories that have predicted that economic integration would give spillover effects, resulting in supranational decision-making processes - also within the area of security. Relations are still intergovernmental and nations are reluctant to give up their vetoes.

Instead, security cooperation has been characterized by a large number of new commitments and of increased cohesion among the members when acting in crises. The reasons believed to account for this are above all of an external nature, the primary one being the change of the nature of threats in Europe. It is now obvious to all that Europeans need to take more responsibility for their own security. In addition, mismanagement of future crises will be costly for the reputation and support of the EU. Other triggering factors are the perceived distance between American and European approaches to security and the British change of attitude to the European Union.

A further major change concerns the balance of power among the three major states in Western Europe. The French and the British power positions have weakened whereas that of Germany has been strengthened. The latter country has become more of a normal country, less burdened by its past, less prone to agree with French views and freer to express its visions of Europe, frequently quite different from those of France and the UK. When seeking to answer the questions posed, it is obvious that external factors such as the war in the former Yugoslavia, relations with the United States and changes in relative power among the major West European states are important. But it is also clear that a new feeling of European identity has developed over the last few years. The future is likely to be one of high flexibility with a weakened but still existing Franco-German cooperation, complemented by other, often issue-related, coalitions. For the EU countries, still reluctant to form supranational decision structures, there is, however, a hope that the success achieved through the present cohesion will lead to continued unanimity when facing crises.

This article is Gunilla Herolf's inaugural lecture presented to the Security Policy Section of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences on 24th April, 2001, by Gunilla Herolf, B.A.