A Rejoinder to "An Air Defence for the Future"

Summary of Bertil Wennerholm's and Stig Schyldt's article in RSAWSPJ no 4 2001.

In a rejoinder to our annual study, the gallant fellows of the Academy, Generals Björeman and Gard have criticized us for overestimating the Swedish Air Force’s future requirement for fighter aircraft. In a long-term study of the Swedish Armed Forces, the operational requirements are stated to be 60-80 aircraft deployed to five squadrons. According to the principles governing the procurement of aircraft for the Swedish Air Force since the Defence resolution of 1942, this requirement for operational aircraft would correspond to a total need of 130-160 aircraft, including aircraft to cover those absent from the line for maintenance purposes and initial war attrition. An operational requirement for eight aircraft per squadron corresponded to a procurement of 18 aircraft per squadron. This latter number was reduced to 17 JAS 39 aircraft per squadron in accordance with the decision to buy 204 aircraft, following the Defence resolution of 1996 which included an Air Force of 12 JAS 39 squadrons.

The problems following the sharp reductions in defence expenditure and ensuing force reductions are manifold. The orders to industry for delivering 204 aircraft cannot be reduced with a corresponding financial gain, and the consequences of an annulment of the present order are also feared to have detrimental effects on export promotion of the JAS 39. The main controversy between ourselves and our fellow academicians seems to be that over the Air Force total future requirement for aircraft. In fact we agree that the number of 204 JAS 39 aircraft is above that requirement. There is an ambiguity in the Defence estimates and the question ought to be settled by a statement from the Armed Forces defining and explaining the above discussed figures, i.e. the operational requirements and the ideal total procurement necessary to cover them.

As we said in our introductory remarks, we did not set out to to solve Sweden's air defence problems, but we still think we have provided some basic and useful information in our annual study.